Is the U.S. in a Recession?

Depending on whom you ask whether the country is in a recession

or not you will be told either "Yes indeed," or "Not a chance!"

the latter answer will come from the president and his administration,

along with his party which currently has control of both chambers of

Congress. Just about everyone else is convinced (including your 

faithful Peasant) that we are certainly in a recession. We therefore 

have a difference in views and substance regarding the debate 

and the answer to the question at hand.

New York's new mayor, Eric Adams, when recently speaking to the 

non-profit group Project Hospitality, stated "We're in a financial crisis

like you can never imagine ... Wall Street is collapsing. We're in a 

recession." Now, the accepted definition among economists is and

has long been two consecutive quarters of decline in the 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Although Wall Street is going 

through a great deal of turbulence of late it is not, as Mayor Adams

claims, collapsing. Besides, Wall Street has seen and been through 

worse in its long history, including of course the Great Depression 

which gripped the U.S. in the 1930s. Perhaps Mayor Adams should

consult with his fellow Democrat, President Biden about the matter.

However, the debate has brought a new notoriety to the organization

which officially designates recessions: the National Bureau of 

Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee. Their idea of 

a recession is "a significant decline in economic activity spread across 

the economy, lasting more than a few months", taking into account

GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and consumer

spending. This definition is practically as long as a Senate fillibuster,

making it not at all as simple as "two consecutive quarters of decline

in the GDP". It must be noted, though, that the NBER won't make its

official determination for a few more months. 

Also, whenever President Biden and his merry band tell us that "there

isn't a recession" and that our economy is quite strong, more and more

people, particularly those on Main Street, believe with certainty that  

we're absolutely in a recession. And with the way that Biden and his 

chums have a rather awkward relationship with the truth, to say the
least, it's no wonder.

I'll close with this: I've heard news of employers slowing or ceasing  

their rates of hiring in part due to the climbing inflation, the worst 

we've seen in over forty years. The supply chain situation for many 

companies isn't getting any better, and there are more than a few  

empty or near-empty product shelves in many stores. What has been 

so far an employees' job market will soon revert to being an employer's 

market with the jobs disappearing, and many firms will not be able to 

afford to hire as many workers as they previously had.   

And it's going to get ugly. Real ugly. 

MEM